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A Nuclear Middle East – Iran plus 12 Other States
By The Anglo American | September 24, 2008
We are now looking at the next nuclear arms race. There are 13 countries in the Middle East that are politically committed to nuclear status {International Institute for Strategic Studies}. For the US to have any meaningful foreign policy towards Iran without including the whole region would now be meaningless.
Even before the Iraq war the nuclear threat of Iran was known and established by the IAEA. Unlike Iraq, the threat posed by Iran was never speculative. The evidence, rather than just incomplete intelligence, was there. Western governments continue their justification for war with Iraq and the arguments for and against have become a cliché of overwriting. But what is in little doubt is the Iraq was always the wrong priority. It was then and it remains so today. These are the lost years.
Who then, in the US Presidential race is going to grasp the thorny issue of the Middle East? The Obama camp has spoken vaguely about the possibility of sanctions without discounting military action. But as John Bolton, the former US Ambassador to the UN has recently pointed out, sanctions are at least five years too late. They will no longer have any impact. As President, Barak Obama will have to be more politically inventive than this.
An Iranian Nuclear Power Station
Senator John McCain presents a pragmatic continuation of the Bush legacy emphasizing the dangers of early withdrawal from Iraq being seen as a defeat.
Interestingly, both Senators McCain and Obama see the Middle East through a military lens rather than a political one. McCain focuses on the military in Iraq while Obama wants to refocus military efforts into Afghanistan.
In this US election bid so far neither politician has yet shown faith in their abilities to explore political solutions in the International scene.
For the French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, engagement is the only way forward…….
The French President Nicolas Sarkozy “…….enable us to escape an alternative that I say is catastrophic: the Iranian bomb or the bombing of Iran,”
What is missing is a constructive dialogue to establish a foreign policy kick-start. To have a starting point for developing a Middle Eastern policy is to have a political aim. A good, and desirable aim would be to explore a regional treaty to be free of nuclear weapons.
Is that just wishful thinking? Not when there are already 13 countries within the region that are politically committed to nuclear status. It only takes one country threatening nuclear fear for the 12 other nations in the region to turn their nuclear programs away from a civil pursuit. In other words, we have all the offsetting and counterbalancing strategies that drove the destructive engine of the cold war.
The Dimona Nuclear Reactor, Israel
There is no doubt that a nuclear peace treaty would be as challenging to Israel as Iran. But if the US and Russia spoke with one voice it would offer the hope of a bi-lateral agreement. And what better way to cement a new US/Russian détente than by re-invigorating the S.A.L.T. 2 treaty. With both Russia and America committed to a nuclear weapons reduction it would only strengthen their argument.
We do not know enough about Barak Obama. Does he have enough faith in his political ability to find solutions internationally? To be different? Or will he, like President Bush, and John McCain, put his political faith in the military? Surprisingly, from what has come from the Obama camp, so far, indicates the latter.
It is hard to believe that Americans will not be presented with the political option of seeing a significant shift in US foreign policy. After all, this is what has galvanized the Democratic vote. However, it is still a long way from election-day.
©The Anglo American
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